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Message
1 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago
Wolfe's victory over
Montcalm at Quebec in 1759 changed the course of
history for France, Britain and the USA. Suppose
it had happened differently - how would history
have changed?
Situation - 1759: Montcalm
had defeated a large British invasion by land at
Fort Carillon in 1758. He had repelled two
previous attacks by Wolfe at Quebec in 1759. The
year was running out for Wolfe in September, and
soon the fleet would leave Quebec prior to winter.
The battle at the Plains of Abraham was a risky
all-or-nothing endeavour by Wolfe.
Montcalm
had sufficient force to defeat Wolfe, but Wolfe's
maneuvers took Montcalm by surprise. It would have
been a small change for Montcalm to take his time
rather than attacking in haste.
So suppose
Montcalm wins, and Britain retires again after
another bloody failure to take Quebec.
I
suggest: 1 - France is motivated to defend
French North America 2 - Britain takes a break
in trying to invade 3 - the 13 colonies and the
British Crown are less confrontational - leading
to responsible colonial governments and precluding
the need for the American Revolution 4 - the
French Revolution took inspiration from the
American Revolution, and accordingly it may have
been altered in its timing
Any
thoughts?
Brian |
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Message
2 - posted by PaulRyckier
(U1753522) , 4 Weeks Ago
Brian,
that is an
interesting "what if". I made some years ago a
thread here on the boards sparked by an American,
who had a French-Canadian mother and an American
father: Why North-America wasn't French. Had some
15 pages about it. I revived it on the French:
"Histoforums" with more research and had a lot of
respons.
As a Belgian, I am not that good
in Canadian history, but if I remember it well
Montcalm give it at least without nearly any
fighting? Will have to take my papers back after
my week holidays. See you in a week.
It
were French websites. And that thread: Pourquoi
l'Amérique du Nord n'est pas français? (Why is
North-America not French?) on the French forums
was sparked by the reading of "Louisiana" by
Michel Peyramaure.
Warm
regards,
Paul.
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Message
3 - posted by GrumpyFred
(U2228930) , 4 Weeks Ago
To add to this what if,
a theme I suggested once. The French throw the
English out of North America, The Spanish hold on
to the south. No U S, and France and Spain fight a
North South war over who controls North America,
the Spanish already holding most of South
America
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Message
4 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago
if I remember it
well Montcalm give it at least without nearly
any fighting?
Quoted from this
message
Montcalm
put up a very strong fight, and died from wounds
sustained in the battle. Under his leadership the
French military was more effective than their
numbers would have suggested. Brian
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Message
5 - posted by PaulRyckier
(U1753522) , 4 Weeks Ago
Brian,
thank you
very much for the immediate reply. I suppose you
are right . Will do the research in a week, when I
am back.
Warm regards,
Paul.
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Message
6 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago
re: Message
#3:
GF - you think the United States would
be the "Etats Unis" then - or EU for short? Would
that mean they would have had to lose all their
wars, or just surrender a lot?
Seriously, I
would expect that the US War of Independence might
not have occurred, and that independence would
have come slowly by evolution, rather than quickly
by revolution.
It might have kept the
British Empire in a dominant position earlier and
for a longer period of time.
But since the
British Empire was so evil, according to
Buckskins, that might have been a bad
thing.
So Wolfe's victory was a good thing,
or a bad thing? I wonder.
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Message
7 - posted by PaulRyckier
(U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago
Brian,
back from
Aachen. Will look into my notes. My intention is
to prove that if Montcalm had not surrendered, it
wouldn't have made a big difference. (smile). But
I am not sure if you extend to the US history?
Will do first research before I reply again. BTW.
I find it a very interesting thread in comparison
with other ones on these "nowadays" BBC history
message boards...(second smile).
Warm
regards,
Paul.
PS. Want first to
finish my other "pending" replies.
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Message
8 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
Paul,
In looking
at this question, ask whether the timing of a
French defeat would have made any difference. The
British likely would prevail, but maybe later
rather than sooner.
If the French had
stayed fighting in North America until 1800, would
the Fathers of the American Revolution pushed for
reform rather than independence from
Britain?
If there had not been an American
Revolution in 1776, would there have been a French
Revolution in 1789?
What do you
think?
Brian
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Message
9 - posted by WhiteCamry
(U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago
Scarboro,
>>>
I suggest: 1 - France is motivated to defend
French North America <<<
Unlikely
with Britain controlling the Atlantic sea routes
and having already taken the rest of French North
America. Montcalm could not have expected
reinforcements, nor could he have gone on the
offensive to retake the lost French colonies. It
would have been much like MacArthur holding out in
the Philippines in 1942.
*****
>>> 2 - Britain
takes a break in trying to invade 3 - the 13
colonies and the British Crown are less
confrontational - leading to responsible colonial
governments and precluding the need for the
American Revolution <<<
Given the
above, besieging Quebec and awaiting
reinforcements would have been the next British
step.
What's more, the British colonies
were quite competently self-governing. The
Independence movement grew out of Britain's
imposing postwar taxes to pay for the war, won or
lost.
*****
>>> 4 - the
French Revolution took inspiration from the
American Revolution, and accordingly it may have
been altered in its timing
<<<
Hard to say. The French
Revolution may have been encouraged by the
Americans' success but the French government had
been straining itself and France throughout the
1700s, so the revolutionary ferment was there all
throughout.
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Message
10 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
White Camry,
I
don't think it is quite as clear-cut as you
suggest.
The French navy was still a force
to be reckoned with. After the capture of Quebec
in 1759, the French held out in Montreal until the
spring of 1760. Naval forces would leave the St.
Lawrence in the winter and return in the spring
(something about ice). The French had reason to
believe that the French fleet would arrive, and
only surrendered when the British arrived
first.
The colony of Quebec was
self-sustaining. Montcalm would have benefitted
from reinforcements, but he had been doing a good
job against the British and colonial forces. Had
Wolfe lost on the Plains of Abraham the fleet
would have pulled out for the winter shortly. In
fact it was the lateness of the season that pushed
Wolfe to a desparate gamble - otherwise the
admiral was going to pull the plug on his
campaign.
I was questioning whether the
British and colonial forces had the will to
continue sending invading armies into Canada had
they been repulsed with heavy losses both in 1758
and 1759.
We know the colonial move to
independence was driven by taxation in the
post-war period. Had there been a continuing war
those taxes would have been less aggravating when
they were paying for an army fighting for colonial
security.
I am suggesting that the
revolutionary leaders might have accepted a form
of responsible governmental reform rather than
total revolution had there been an enemy force in
place in Canada and the Mississippi
valley.
At issue is the philosophical issue
- do the individuals change history, or are they
pawns in an overriding tide of
change?
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Message
11 - posted by WhiteCamry
(U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago
Scarboro,
>>>
I am suggesting that the revolutionary leaders
might have accepted a form of responsible
governmental reform rather than total revolution
had there been an enemy force in place in Canada
and the Mississippi valley. <<<
1)
"Responsible governmental reform" on whose
part?
2) Given the British colonists' own
westward ambitions, I'm not so sure a peace with
the French would have been so long
lasting.
3) Even if Montcalm had defeated
Wolfe, an ultimate French victory wasn't his to
make. He knew a relieving French fleet would have
had to defeat the British at Louisbourg, and he
couldn't hear of that unless they'd actually done
so.
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Message
12 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
White
Camry,
While I agree that the French would
eventually be overwhelmed by superior British
numbers, I am not convinced that Montcalm was
doomed in 1759. He had thrown back an invading
army in 1758, and he could have thrown Wolfe back
in 1759 had he acted differently on the Plains of
Abraham.
British naval superiority was not
absolute, and Quebec was not dependent on relief
convoys. The British position at Louisbourg was
not fatal to Quebec.
Granted that American
migration westward would lead to ongoing conflict
with the French and their native allies. The wars
in the west at the time, and up to the war of 1812
demonstrated an advantage to defenders, and
difficulty in leading armies through wilderness
territories.
My suggestion is that had the
French held their North American territories from
1760 to 1800, the people that led the American
Revolution might have pressed for reform rather
than independence. That does beg the question
whether the British crown would have been amenable
to reforms at the time.
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Message
13 - posted by PaulRyckier
(U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago
Brian,sigh. I am still
struggling with the documents in the site I
mentioned. [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by
Moderator]Wolfe and Montcalm died nearly at the
same moment? The battle of the plaines of Abraham
was only an "escarmouche" (a skirmish) not that
many dead at both sides. A "blowing up" of the
reality to make it more glorious. The author
mentions a lot of documents to prove his
statements. He even cites Simon Shama if I
remember it well.As I understand it till now
(smile) it were not the military who give up
Quebec without battle, but the citizens?? Montcalm
was already dead...?See you tomorrow after more
research...Warm regards,Paul.
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Message
14 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
Paul,
Wolfe &
Montcalm both died in the same battle - Wolfe died
quickly, Montcalm took about a day to
die.
The battle was large for North America
at the time. Each army was about 5,000 - small by
European standards, but large in the colonies at
the time.
Quebec's governor surrendered to
the British several days after Montcalm died. He
was feeling that continuing to fight would be a
lost cause once the British had surrounded the
city.
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Message
15 - posted by PaulRyckier
(U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago
Addendum message
13.
Brian,
I think that the
document as it gives no author is something
dubious. You as Canadian can perhaps make more of
it? I think it is from some kind of action
group?
Nevertheless as it gives some
"special" statements I will verify it against the
"normal" historywriting.
Warm
regards,
Paul.
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Message
16 - posted by WhiteCamry
(U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago
Scarboro,
>>>
My suggestion is that had the French held their
North American territories from 1760 to 1800, the
people that led the American Revolution might have
pressed for reform rather than independence. That
does beg the question whether the British crown
would have been amenable to reforms at the time.
<<<
Your agenda becomes clear: you
simply wish the Americans hadn't quit the British
Empire the way they ultimately did. Sadly, that
would have required:
1) a certain foresight
and forebearance on Whitehall's part which they
never had once Pitt the Elder went off the deep
end, and
2) the Americans not to be
Americans.
But let's indulge your fancy a
little. What reforms would or could the Americans
have demanded if Wolfe lost at Quebec and the
French reclaimed their empire in North
America?
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Message
17 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
White
Camry,
Saying that something would have
happened is different than wanting that thing to
happen. My "agenda" is not fondness for the
British Empire, but rather an interest in how
individual human actions influence the course of
history.
Indulge my fancy a little then. In
1837 there were abortive rebellions in Canada due
to poor governance. After the rebels were
suppressed Britain set up a commission to
determine the causes. They recommended democratic
reforms resulting in a system of "responsible
government". This set the stage for the evolution
of Canada into an independent democracy over the
course of time.
Perhaps the British had
learned a lesson from the loss of the American
colonies, and otherwise they would have been
inflexible.
What we know is that the
American and French revolutions set the western
world on end between 1770 and 1800. Had Montcalm
held onto French North America during that period,
which was possible IMO, would the colonial leaders
of the Revolution have put up with British rule
long enough for change to happen gradually? Would
the blow-up have happened inevitably, or was it a
matter of historical chance?
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Message
18 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
Paul,
My French
is not that great, but the way I read the
documents you referred to is that the author is
saying "We should not have lost the war" - similar
to the way the Germans reacted after WW1.
I
think the author is trying to diminish the
magnitude of the French loss / British victory by
blaming a few defeatists. This is a little like
what happens when a country loses the World
Cup.
There is some truth. The battle of the
Plains of Abraham was short in duration. A large
part of the French army was intact. With a
different leader they could have continued the
defense of Quebec. But they didn't do
that.
Part of the French problem was
divided command. In the field Montcalm was
unquestioned, but in defending Quebec the Governor
chose to overrule him. On the day in question,
Montcalm rode out to assess Wolfe's attack,
concluded he was facing Wolfe's full army, and
sent orders to bring up the bulk of his regular
troops. The Governor countermanded this, and kept
the regulars to meet the diversionary attack by a
naval landing party.
Montcalm had a
reputation for military genius based on his
victories in the field. His troops had faith
because of his leadership. Losing him was a severe
blow to morale.
Having been under seige
for months, seeing the British closing in on the
city, and losing the brilliant general put the
French leaders into disarray.
I believe it
is true that this battle could have gone either
way, and the actions of the leaders made all the
difference.
Brian
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Message
19 - posted by WhiteCamry
(U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago
Scarboro,
>> Had
Montcalm held onto French North America during
that period, which was possible IMO, would the
colonial leaders of the Revolution have put up
with British rule long enough for change to happen
gradually? Would the blow-up have happened
inevitably, or was it a matter of historical
chance? <<
Given that the Americans'
westward ambitions led to conflict with the French
in the first place, I doubt any French-favoring
peace treaty would have lasted. You apparently
expect a certain patience on the Americans part.
Remember, you're talking about Americans, not
Canadians.
What's more, even a
victorious Britain found her American colonies
difficult to rein in. How much more difficult
would it have been for a defeated Britain?
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Message
20 - posted by Scarboro
(U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago
White Camry,
Two
points - they weren't Americans before the
Revolution. They were Virginians, Marylanders,
etc., and they had not yet chased the more
moderate citizens north yet.
Second - a
"defeated" Britain would not have stayed that way
forever. They would have continued to press the
French, in conjunction with the colonial
forces.
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