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You are here > History message boards > History Hub > What if ... Montcalm had won in 1759?

Discussion:

What if ... Montcalm had won in 1759?

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Message 1 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago

Wolfe's victory over Montcalm at Quebec in 1759 changed the course of history for France, Britain and the USA. Suppose it had happened differently - how would history have changed?

Situation - 1759: Montcalm had defeated a large British invasion by land at Fort Carillon in 1758. He had repelled two previous attacks by Wolfe at Quebec in 1759. The year was running out for Wolfe in September, and soon the fleet would leave Quebec prior to winter. The battle at the Plains of Abraham was a risky all-or-nothing endeavour by Wolfe.

Montcalm had sufficient force to defeat Wolfe, but Wolfe's maneuvers took Montcalm by surprise. It would have been a small change for Montcalm to take his time rather than attacking in haste.

So suppose Montcalm wins, and Britain retires again after another bloody failure to take Quebec.

I suggest:
1 - France is motivated to defend French North America
2 - Britain takes a break in trying to invade
3 - the 13 colonies and the British Crown are less confrontational - leading to responsible colonial governments and precluding the need for the American Revolution
4 - the French Revolution took inspiration from the American Revolution, and accordingly it may have been altered in its timing

Any thoughts?

Brian
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Message 2 - posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) , 4 Weeks Ago

Brian,

that is an interesting "what if". I made some years ago a thread here on the boards sparked by an American, who had a French-Canadian mother and an American father: Why North-America wasn't French. Had some 15 pages about it. I revived it on the French: "Histoforums" with more research and had a lot of respons.

As a Belgian, I am not that good in Canadian history, but if I remember it well Montcalm give it at least without nearly any fighting? Will have to take my papers back after my week holidays. See you in a week.

It were French websites. And that thread: Pourquoi l'Amérique du Nord n'est pas français? (Why is North-America not French?) on the French forums was sparked by the reading of "Louisiana" by Michel Peyramaure.

Warm regards,

Paul.

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Message 3 - posted by GrumpyFred (U2228930) , 4 Weeks Ago

To add to this what if, a theme I suggested once. The French throw the English out of North America, The Spanish hold on to the south. No U S, and France and Spain fight a North South war over who controls North America, the Spanish already holding most of South America

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Message 4 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago

if I remember it well Montcalm give it at least without nearly any fighting?

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Montcalm put up a very strong fight, and died from wounds sustained in the battle. Under his leadership the French military was more effective than their numbers would have suggested.

Brian

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Message 5 - posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) , 4 Weeks Ago

Brian,

thank you very much for the immediate reply. I suppose you are right . Will do the research in a week, when I am back.

Warm regards,

Paul.

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Message 6 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 4 Weeks Ago

re: Message #3:

GF - you think the United States would be the "Etats Unis" then - or EU for short? Would that mean they would have had to lose all their wars, or just surrender a lot?

Seriously, I would expect that the US War of Independence might not have occurred, and that independence would have come slowly by evolution, rather than quickly by revolution.

It might have kept the British Empire in a dominant position earlier and for a longer period of time.

But since the British Empire was so evil, according to Buckskins, that might have been a bad thing.

So Wolfe's victory was a good thing, or a bad thing? I wonder.

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Message 7 - posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago

Brian,

back from Aachen. Will look into my notes. My intention is to prove that if Montcalm had not surrendered, it wouldn't have made a big difference. (smile). But I am not sure if you extend to the US history? Will do first research before I reply again. BTW. I find it a very interesting thread in comparison with other ones on these "nowadays" BBC history message boards...(second smile).

Warm regards,

Paul.

PS. Want first to finish my other "pending" replies.

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Message 8 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

Paul,

In looking at this question, ask whether the timing of a French defeat would have made any difference. The British likely would prevail, but maybe later rather than sooner.

If the French had stayed fighting in North America until 1800, would the Fathers of the American Revolution pushed for reform rather than independence from Britain?

If there had not been an American Revolution in 1776, would there have been a French Revolution in 1789?

What do you think?

Brian

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Message 9 - posted by WhiteCamry (U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago

Scarboro,

>>> I suggest:
1 - France is motivated to defend French North America <<<

Unlikely with Britain controlling the Atlantic sea routes and having already taken the rest of French North America. Montcalm could not have expected reinforcements, nor could he have gone on the offensive to retake the lost French colonies. It would have been much like MacArthur holding out in the Philippines in 1942.

*****

>>> 2 - Britain takes a break in trying to invade
3 - the 13 colonies and the British Crown are less confrontational - leading to responsible colonial governments and precluding the need for the American Revolution <<<

Given the above, besieging Quebec and awaiting reinforcements would have been the next British step.

What's more, the British colonies were quite competently self-governing. The Independence movement grew out of Britain's imposing postwar taxes to pay for the war, won or lost.

*****

>>> 4 - the French Revolution took inspiration from the American Revolution, and accordingly it may have been altered in its timing <<<

Hard to say. The French Revolution may have been encouraged by the Americans' success but the French government had been straining itself and France throughout the 1700s, so the revolutionary ferment was there all throughout.

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Message 10 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

White Camry,

I don't think it is quite as clear-cut as you suggest.

The French navy was still a force to be reckoned with. After the capture of Quebec in 1759, the French held out in Montreal until the spring of 1760. Naval forces would leave the St. Lawrence in the winter and return in the spring (something about ice). The French had reason to believe that the French fleet would arrive, and only surrendered when the British arrived first.

The colony of Quebec was self-sustaining. Montcalm would have benefitted from reinforcements, but he had been doing a good job against the British and colonial forces. Had Wolfe lost on the Plains of Abraham the fleet would have pulled out for the winter shortly. In fact it was the lateness of the season that pushed Wolfe to a desparate gamble - otherwise the admiral was going to pull the plug on his campaign.

I was questioning whether the British and colonial forces had the will to continue sending invading armies into Canada had they been repulsed with heavy losses both in 1758 and 1759.

We know the colonial move to independence was driven by taxation in the post-war period. Had there been a continuing war those taxes would have been less aggravating when they were paying for an army fighting for colonial security.

I am suggesting that the revolutionary leaders might have accepted a form of responsible governmental reform rather than total revolution had there been an enemy force in place in Canada and the Mississippi valley.

At issue is the philosophical issue - do the individuals change history, or are they pawns in an overriding tide of change?

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Message 11 - posted by WhiteCamry (U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago

Scarboro,

>>> I am suggesting that the revolutionary leaders might have accepted a form of responsible governmental reform rather than total revolution had there been an enemy force in place in Canada and the Mississippi valley. <<<

1) "Responsible governmental reform" on whose part?

2) Given the British colonists' own westward ambitions, I'm not so sure a peace with the French would have been so long lasting.

3) Even if Montcalm had defeated Wolfe, an ultimate French victory wasn't his to make. He knew a relieving French fleet would have had to defeat the British at Louisbourg, and he couldn't hear of that unless they'd actually done so.

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Message 12 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

White Camry,

While I agree that the French would eventually be overwhelmed by superior British numbers, I am not convinced that Montcalm was doomed in 1759. He had thrown back an invading army in 1758, and he could have thrown Wolfe back in 1759 had he acted differently on the Plains of Abraham.

British naval superiority was not absolute, and Quebec was not dependent on relief convoys. The British position at Louisbourg was not fatal to Quebec.

Granted that American migration westward would lead to ongoing conflict with the French and their native allies. The wars in the west at the time, and up to the war of 1812 demonstrated an advantage to defenders, and difficulty in leading armies through wilderness territories.

My suggestion is that had the French held their North American territories from 1760 to 1800, the people that led the American Revolution might have pressed for reform rather than independence. That does beg the question whether the British crown would have been amenable to reforms at the time.

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Message 13 - posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago

Brian,sigh. I am still struggling with the documents in the site I mentioned. [Unsuitable/Broken URL removed by Moderator]Wolfe and Montcalm died nearly at the same moment? The battle of the plaines of Abraham was only an "escarmouche" (a skirmish) not that many dead at both sides. A "blowing up" of the reality to make it more glorious. The author mentions a lot of documents to prove his statements. He even cites Simon Shama if I remember it well.As I understand it till now (smile) it were not the military who give up Quebec without battle, but the citizens?? Montcalm was already dead...?See you tomorrow after more research...Warm regards,Paul.

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Message 14 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

Paul,

Wolfe & Montcalm both died in the same battle - Wolfe died quickly, Montcalm took about a day to die.

The battle was large for North America at the time. Each army was about 5,000 - small by European standards, but large in the colonies at the time.

Quebec's governor surrendered to the British several days after Montcalm died. He was feeling that continuing to fight would be a lost cause once the British had surrounded the city.

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Message 15 - posted by PaulRyckier (U1753522) , 3 Weeks Ago

Addendum message 13.

Brian,

I think that the document as it gives no author is something dubious. You as Canadian can perhaps make more of it? I think it is from some kind of action group?

Nevertheless as it gives some "special" statements I will verify it against the "normal" historywriting.

Warm regards,

Paul.

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Message 16 - posted by WhiteCamry (U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago

Scarboro,

>>> My suggestion is that had the French held their North American territories from 1760 to 1800, the people that led the American Revolution might have pressed for reform rather than independence. That does beg the question whether the British crown would have been amenable to reforms at the time. <<<

Your agenda becomes clear: you simply wish the Americans hadn't quit the British Empire the way they ultimately did. Sadly, that would have required:

1) a certain foresight and forebearance on Whitehall's part which they never had once Pitt the Elder went off the deep end, and

2) the Americans not to be Americans.

But let's indulge your fancy a little. What reforms would or could the Americans have demanded if Wolfe lost at Quebec and the French reclaimed their empire in North America?

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Message 17 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

White Camry,

Saying that something would have happened is different than wanting that thing to happen. My "agenda" is not fondness for the British Empire, but rather an interest in how individual human actions influence the course of history.

Indulge my fancy a little then. In 1837 there were abortive rebellions in Canada due to poor governance. After the rebels were suppressed Britain set up a commission to determine the causes. They recommended democratic reforms resulting in a system of "responsible government". This set the stage for the evolution of Canada into an independent democracy over the course of time.

Perhaps the British had learned a lesson from the loss of the American colonies, and otherwise they would have been inflexible.

What we know is that the American and French revolutions set the western world on end between 1770 and 1800. Had Montcalm held onto French North America during that period, which was possible IMO, would the colonial leaders of the Revolution have put up with British rule long enough for change to happen gradually? Would the blow-up have happened inevitably, or was it a matter of historical chance?

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Message 18 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

Paul,

My French is not that great, but the way I read the documents you referred to is that the author is saying "We should not have lost the war" - similar to the way the Germans reacted after WW1.

I think the author is trying to diminish the magnitude of the French loss / British victory by blaming a few defeatists. This is a little like what happens when a country loses the World Cup.

There is some truth. The battle of the Plains of Abraham was short in duration. A large part of the French army was intact. With a different leader they could have continued the defense of Quebec. But they didn't do that.

Part of the French problem was divided command. In the field Montcalm was unquestioned, but in defending Quebec the Governor chose to overrule him. On the day in question, Montcalm rode out to assess Wolfe's attack, concluded he was facing Wolfe's full army, and sent orders to bring up the bulk of his regular troops. The Governor countermanded this, and kept the regulars to meet the diversionary attack by a naval landing party.

Montcalm had a reputation for military genius based on his victories in the field. His troops had faith because of his leadership. Losing him was a severe blow to morale.

Having been under seige for months, seeing the British closing in on the city, and losing the brilliant general put the French leaders into disarray.

I believe it is true that this battle could have gone either way, and the actions of the leaders made all the difference.

Brian

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Message 19 - posted by WhiteCamry (U2321601) , 3 Weeks Ago

Scarboro,

>> Had Montcalm held onto French North America during that period, which was possible IMO, would the colonial leaders of the Revolution have put up with British rule long enough for change to happen gradually? Would the blow-up have happened inevitably, or was it a matter of historical chance? <<

Given that the Americans' westward ambitions led to conflict with the French in the first place, I doubt any French-favoring peace treaty would have lasted. You apparently expect a certain patience on the Americans part. Remember, you're talking about Americans, not Canadians.


What's more, even a victorious Britain found her American colonies difficult to rein in. How much more difficult would it have been for a defeated Britain?

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Message 20 - posted by Scarboro (U2806863) , 3 Weeks Ago

White Camry,

Two points - they weren't Americans before the Revolution. They were Virginians, Marylanders, etc., and they had not yet chased the more moderate citizens north yet.

Second - a "defeated" Britain would not have stayed that way forever. They would have continued to press the French, in conjunction with the colonial forces.

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